Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?


Login with username, password and session length

Visit Alamos Mexico  |  Community  |  Alamos Weather (Moderator: Weather Guy)  |  Topic: Hello Andres
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Hello Andres  (Read 1169 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« on: May 28, 2015, 07:42:49 AM »

Tropical depression One-E, which formed last night southeast of Acapulco, has reached Tropical storm strength this morning.  Andres is predicted to become the 1st hurricane of the season sometime tomorrow. The system poses little threat to land with only high waves for the coast of Baja. Here in Alamos there is a possibility of rain next week.

The hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific Basin begins on June 1, Andres will have arrived two days early!

The Weather Guy
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2015, 03:05:50 PM »

Tropical Storm Andres has been upgraded to Hurricane Status as of the 2:00 PM advisory. It is predicted to stay a Cat 1 storm through this coming Monday. The path has turned toward the NW and it will not make any landfall. Alamos likely will not get any rain from Andres.

The Weather Guy
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2015, 11:58:55 PM »

Andres turned up the heat and reached Cat 4 strength while we at dinner tonight.  Here is info from Dr. Jeff Masters blog at Weather Underground.

"Hurricane Andres became only the fifth major May hurricane on record in the Northeast Pacific on Sunday, when it intensified into a 125 mph Category 3 storm in the waters about 800 miles southwest of the tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Its unexpected intensification continued Sunday evening, with Andres reaching Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds at 11 pm EDT. According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms maintained by NOAA's Office for Coastal Management, Andres' emergence as a major hurricane at longitude 118.8°W marks the farthest west a major hurricane has been in the Northeast Pacific in May in the 45 years since accurate satellite records began in 1970, and comes well before the usual July 19 formation date of the first major hurricane of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season."

In the meantime Tropical Depression Two-E has come up this afternoon forming to the SE of Andres.  More from Dr. Masters.

"Hurricane Andres now has a companion--Tropical Depression 2-E, which formed Sunday afternoon about 380 miles SSW of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. ... Andres and TD 2-E are the first salvos in what is likely to be a very busy Northeast Pacific hurricane season. NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for 15 - 22 named storms, 7 - 12 hurricanes, 5 - 8 major hurricanes. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 18.5 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, and 6.5 major hurricanes."

TD Two-E is predicted to spin up as a Cat 2 storm early next week, possibly hitting the south western coast of Mexico. To soon to be sure but may also bring some rain to Alamos the following week.

Check out Dr. Masters blog for the complete discussion and see the photo of Andres from this afternoon. After somewhat of a raggedy start Andres has become a very handsome storm, muy guapo.  It is unusual for Dr. Masters to blog so early about our Pacific Hurricanes,  I think Andres got his attention. 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3002

More on TD Two-E tomorrow,

The Weather Guy

Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2015, 03:05:41 PM »

Yesterday afternoon TD Two-E achieved Tropical Storm strength to become today, Hurricane Blanca. As of this post there are two Cat 1 hurricanes in the Eastern North Pacific, a fairly rare occurance and perhaps has never happened so early in the season. Blanca enters the record book as the earliest 2nd hurricane to form since realiable records have been kept, from 1971. Andres has run his course and is weaking and doubling back as a TS.  Blanca is predicted to rapidly strengthen over the next 2 days to a Cat 4 storm headed toward the Baja.  To soon to say what the threat to Los Cabos maybe but as of the 2:00 PM update they may see a strong TS arrive over the weekend. At prestent there is no threat to land other than high waves on the coast.

The Weather Guy
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2015, 09:53:21 AM »

... after three days of the most rapid intensification on record, and still having moved less than a couple hundred miles from where it started, Blanca is gathering up her skirts and ready to head up to Cabo for the weekend. Check out Dr. Masters blog for today at www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters, for a detail discussion of Andres and Blanca's entry to the record book. 

For Alamos we have a 30 to 50% chance of rain over this coming weekend.

Stay tuned, Blanca will make a her run as a Cat 4 storm and a chance for some amazing images as she goes.

The Weather Guy
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2015, 11:17:49 AM »

...Hello Carlos,
More on Carlos below, but 1st a wrap for Blanca.

Hurricane Blanca is in the record book as noted in my earlier posts;
* 2nd earliest Major hurricane, Cat 4 or greater
* Earliest TS to land on the Baja in more than 40 years

Los Cabos got some high wind but little rain Sunday afternoon from what was TS Blanca at thatpoint. However Alamos got a good gully washer Sunday evening, and a very windy, gusts upto 28 mph, Monday. WS Centro recorded .67" of rain, with about 1/2" , in a good downpour, in 20 minutes!

Now more about Carlos:
Carlos formed as a Tropical Storm this morning south of Acapulco. Not predicted to reach the intensity of Andres or Blanca it is on track, as of this AM, to come along the coast of Mexico as a Cat 1 storm over the next week. To soon to tell, but we will be keeping a close eye on Carlos this weekend.

Check the wunderground Alamos Centro page today for Dr. Masters info on Carlos and also a good article on the history and the why of El Ninos.

The Weather Guy thanks the folks who take time to read this blog. The thread that started with Andres has had 189 views as of Blanca!

The annual rain season for 2014-2015 ended on May 31st, our total for W/S Centro was 27.99" and 30.2" for longtime resident and rain watcher Doug on the NE side of the Loma Guadalupe. FIY W/S Centro is on the SE side of the Loma and gets somewhat less rain than other areas due to the rain shadow from the Loma.

Bye for now and check back often for what has started out to be a very active rainy season!

The Weather Guy
Logged
MJD
Member less than 50 posts
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 13


« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2015, 06:49:14 PM »

Hello Weatherguy.  What is a typical (if there is such a thing) year?
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2015, 10:30:07 PM »

Good question MJD. Yes but the answer is not how much but when. Over fifty years ago our typical rain year consisted of two rainy seasons. A summer and a winter. Recently the winter rains have not been happening. This year however there has been measureable rain every month since December 2014. If this should continue for several years, past the increasng El Nino we are currently experiencing, we could have returned to the 'typical' of many years ago, when 40" , I am told, would be a good year.

The Weather Guy
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2015, 09:14:10 AM »

This morning as predicted TS Carlos became Hurricane Carlos. Unpredictedly however, in doing so has taken "a jog to right" so the track is coming much closer to the coastline than expected and hurricane watch is in effect south of PV.  Carlos continues to be a slow moving storm expected to develop throughout next week.  The most important thing at this point, is the posibility that the weaking TS remaining at the end of its run, sometime next weekend, may enter the Sea of Cortez where it will encounter warmer water!

At this point rain and thunderstorms are predicted here, for next week starting as early as Wednesday. Hopefully by Monday there will be a better picture of what to anticipate.  From my experience if Carlos does not come ashore near PV we need to pay close attention to this storm.

Check back for an update late Sunday, and please don't forget to attend the US Consulate Town Hall meeting 5:00 PM, at Hacienda de los Santos this Sunday.

The Weather Guy
Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2015, 04:04:46 PM »

It seems that Hurricane Carlos, like Blanca, is some what of a Bi-Polar storm. Though not nearly a major storm like Blanca, Carlos lost wind speed yesterday falling back as a TS and today regained strength to become a Cat 1 hurricane again. Carlos is a small storm, in comparison to Andres and Blanca, with hurricane force winds only extending out 10 miles from the center. However with its"to close for comfort" location off the coast of Mexico, makes it to important to ignor.  Carlos' track updated as of 2:00 PM today shows it moving as a Cat 1 parallel to the coast today and tomorrrow before loosing wind speed and turning back into a TS, without making landfall. However because of it's slow foward motion of only 5 mph, and the constantly changing influences that steer the storm, it would only take a " slight deviation to the right" to bring it ashore near Manzanillo.

Although a small storm Carlos transported a fair share of moisture to the region, some of which could bring afternoon rains to Alamos later this week.

The Weather Guy

Logged
Weather Guy
Global Moderator
Member less than 250 posts
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 118


« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2015, 06:33:27 AM »

Hurricane Carlos although "tiny" , only some 20 miles in diameter, has also made it's way into the record book as the 2nd earliest named storm to make landfall since 1951, when realible records have been kept. Carlos came ashore yesterday morning as a Tropical Storm near Cabo Corientes south of PV as expected. The resultant Post Cyclone Tropical Depresion heading back out to sea and has now diminished. Moisture from Carlos may reach Alamos on Saturday.

Thanks for reading, good bye until the next storm,

The Weather Guy
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines | Cityscape design by Bloc | XHTML | CSS