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Visit Alamos Mexico  |  Community  |  Alamos Weather (Moderator: Weather Guy)  |  Topic: Goodby Norbert '14 ... Hello Odile
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Author Topic: Goodby Norbert '14 ... Hello Odile  (Read 2281 times)
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Weather Guy
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« on: September 10, 2014, 09:45:15 AM »

TS Odile has formed this morning from TD 15E, a disturbance, Invest 91E, that the Weather Guy has been watching for the last few days. Odile is about 200 miles SW of Zihuatanejo moving slowly, at present about 3 MPH. Guidance predicts Odile to track much closer to the coast of Mexico than Norbert, with possible land fall on the Baja peninsula as a Cat 2 hurricane. The next three days will be important to keep track of this storm, any deviation to the east of the predicted track may result in landfall along the coast of SW Mexico or could bring Odile into the Sea of Cortez.  At this point we can expect some rain how much it is to soon to tell!

Look for an update Friday, also you can track in real time at: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/tropical-storm-Odile

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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2014, 11:28:01 PM »

8:00 AM MST 14 -09-2014
Overnight Odile has strengthened to a Cat 4 Hurricane and accelerated to 13 MPH with 135 MPH winds. A near miss or possible land fall on the Baja is predicted for tonight, and possible further strengthening to a Cat 5 by tomorrow.  The high pressure currently over Sonora is keeping our sky clear for the moment but in Sinaloa and south, heavy and dangerous rainfall is predicted. Currently tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.

Look for my update later this afternoon. The Weather Guy

11.00 PM MST 13-09-2014
TS Odile became Hurricane Odile around 2:00 AM MST Saturday.  Guidance estimates could only then plot updated track projections. The  Tropical Discussion Information below comes from the 8:00 PM Weather Underground update;

"The new forecast track requires major changes for the warnings and
watches for Mexico, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for
the southern end of the Baja California peninsula.  If Odile strikes
Baja California as a major hurricane, it will be only the fourth
time since 1967 that such a hurricane has hit the peninsula."

It is now 11:00 PM Saturday, Odile is now a Cat 3 level storm, think major hurricane.  The weather guy will update in the AM Sunday, I did not want to wait to get this info out. Stay tuned!  Tell friends with interest on the Baja to GET READY!!

Also from an earlier today Weather Underground update, "Regardless of the track, tropical moisture flowing northwards from Odile's circulation is likely to bring heavy rains to Northern Mexico and the Southwest U.S. by the middle of the week". That would be us here in Alamos? Frankly I would be surprised at this point to miss out on this rodeo, If you are in Sonora we should all be ready.

The Weather Guy

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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2014, 04:06:36 PM »

US Air Force Hurricane hunter aircraft pass this afternoon confirmed some weakening of Odile and though there is now high confidence in the track guidance, it won't be coming here, Cabo San Lucas is  possibly going to experience landfall of the outer eye wall with 100 MPH winds and storm surge of 13' to 33', late this evening. The storm is currently some 130 miles away from CSL which in the last hour has experienced near tropical storm force winds and over an inch of rain, with 5+" predicted. The government of Mexico has ordered evacuations of low lying areas with shelters ready to receive up to 30,000 people. School will be closed in CSL and La Paz Monday, with Independence day celebrations, Tuesday, canceled in La Paz.

Although, at this point much less likely, the following quote earlier, from Weather Underground;
"Authorities were also preparing for the possibility that the storm could move into the Gulf of California between the peninsula and Mexico's mainland.  As a precaution, authorities were on high alert, putting 800 marines on standby and preparing heavy equipment to help out in areas where mudslides could occur."

Already it appears that CSL may have lost electrical power, as the network of PWS I use for local data are all reporting offline status!

Locally the sunny skies of this morning have given way to a heavy overcast. Yes, this is the outflow of moisture from Odile and can be expected as the norm for the next couple days. How much rain we may expect from this moisture is still anyone's guess.

The Weather Guy, look for my late night update as the storm gets to the Baja!
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2014, 07:34:37 AM »

Hurricane Odile made land fall about 11:00 PM MDT on the tip of the Baja.  Below are several news clips, all services are out at this point and it may be most of the day before any real assessments are available.

"With maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, Odile is the strongest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in Baja California since modern records began in the mid-20th century," said weather.com meteorologist Nick Wiltgen. "This storm is putting the tourist infrastructure of Cabo San Lucas and the Los Cabos region through the harshest conditions it's ever experienced."

Live Baja Reports as of10:25 PM MDT: Jim reports from our office in Cabo San Lucas sounds like the constant roar of a jet engine outside. rain very heavy. He is in the bathroom, the only room with no large windows. Waiting for the glass to break. He tells us here in La Paz "To prepare for the big one!"

9:10PM MDT Cabo San Lucas heavy rains and it is extremely windy at our Cabo Office. Power has been out for a while. Our publisher, James Glover, a Baja Surf veteran reports the largest waves he's ever seen of of Cabo in excess of 20ft. Windows are being blown out and some of the roof's metal structure is groaning under the load. Debris is littering everywhere.

Odile continues to be a dangerous Cat 2 storm currently approaching La Paz.  Loreto has already had 8.1" of rain since midnight. It is the only PWS still reporting in the region!

Just added!

NOAA BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA  (near Culiacan) TO BAHIA KINO

Radar currently shows strong rain bands in the Sea of Cortez approaching Los Mochis. Since midnight Alamos has had only .12" starting last night around 10:00 PM.  We should be prepared for rain today!

Stay tuned, The Weather Guy
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2014, 08:27:32 AM »

More...


* map_tropprjpath15_ltst_5nhpao_enus_650x366.jpg (29.56 KB, 650x366 - viewed 340 times.)

* map_specnewsdct-91_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg (58.54 KB, 650x366 - viewed 325 times.)
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2014, 04:17:19 PM »

... how could you treat us so mean?  Hurricane Odile came ashore and has remained ashore throughout the day.  Earlier paying a visit to La Paz and now centered some 215 miles NNW of Cabo San Lucas and 130 miles from La Paz, it continues to deliver impressive amounts of rainfall to the Baja Peninsula. At this time CSL and region are without power, water, TelMex and will soon run out of gasoline.  There is no estimate at this time when services will be restore. Specific information is hard to come by, but the few personal accounts that have made to the news, report tremendous destruction to the region, see the link below for one terrifying story. Some 30,000 tourist (currently termed "temporary refugees") are stranded until transportation to the SJD airport can be arranged.  The airport is scheduled to resume operation by this evening.

Here in Sonora the government has issue a code red tropical storm warning for the coast as far as Kino Bay. We can expect a couple of days of rain here in Alamos but so far there has been very little wind. Rain today has continued on again, less again all day for .67" since midnight with the majority coming this afternoon.

Here is Dr. Masters blog from today:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2799

News at 11, stay tuned, The Weather Guy
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2014, 08:45:14 PM »

I read the blog.  Sure am glad we aren't experiencing that here. 
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2014, 11:31:27 PM »

...but not good by.  Odile has been down grade from a Cat 1 to a Tropical Storm this evening. It is still a strong, winds at 65 MPH and large, over 400 miles across, storm. While we likely will not get any big winds, there is plenty of moisture for another good days rain. Odile is predicted to stay a TS until it moves offshore late tomorrow.  It will have traveled at that point some 440 miles of the Baja over two days time, at no less than Tropical Storm strength!

Rain today here in Alamos was recorded between 1.78" to as much as 2.25", raining pretty much the entire day. Month to date of just about 4".

That's news at 11 for tonight, The Weather Guy
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2014, 01:02:59 PM »

A low pressure cell that has disassociated from Odile has come onshore this morning at Los Mochis and is approaching Alamos with heavy rain and potentially strong winds. This system had previously been absorbed in to Odile's track and had been not considered in the current Tropical Storm Warning in place, but now has a mind of it's own! That last bit of rain about noon is the outer edge of this system that is approximately 150 miles in diameter. Currently wind is steady from the SW and increasing.

While the Weather Guy is please when predictions of nasty weather do not materialize, I would be lax in my service to not post on this one.

STAY OUT OF THE ARROYOS !!!

The Weather Guy
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2014, 01:04:25 PM »

In the future when a Topic is started on a given subject keep all the posts relative to that subject in the same Topic.  Don't start a new Topic when you should just make a new reply on the same Topic.  It makes it much easier to archive an event/issue/topic making it easier to find and follow.

I have merged all the Topics on Odile into one.

Capiche...
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2014, 06:38:01 PM »

Odile has exited the Baja peninsula! After traversing some 400 miles, more than half way to Tijuana, onshore it has now entered the upper end of the Sea of Cortez crossing the north end of Isla Angel de la Guarda as a TS, still with 50 MPH winds. Some strengthening is possible as it now heads toward Puerto Penasco, Sonora, due to arrive tomorrow afternoon as a Tropical Depression. Odile will cross out of Mexico early Thursday morning, but then, actually already, comes the rest of the story. Since last weekend a tremendous queue of moisture has accumulated over southern Arizona waiting for TD Odile to carry a swath of 2" - 4" of rain on through the mid western US as far as Chicago by Saturday. Thursday Phoenix and parts east can expect another near record rain event, which will be the 3rd in as many weeks.

Here in Alamos we have had a windy afternoon with gust in the 20's and .25" of rain so far. The low pressure system which was left behind by Odile has become stretched out with the center remaining over water and likely dissipating over night, some continuing rainfall may still come.

For the record Odile is a feminine given name of French origin.

Though no longer a TS in our region I will continue to report on its progress thru the Phoenix area due to the number of Alamos residents from there.

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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2014, 07:28:38 AM »

Odile is but a shadow of a once powerful storm.  Crossing yesterday as a TD somewhat south of Puerto Panesco it was expected to enter Arizona last night or early this morning. It is no longer considered a tropical cyclone but the remnant low pressure system is expected to move a good deal of moisture thru Southeastern Arizona with up to 7" of rain over the next 3 days. Southeast Arizona and Southwest New Mexico are at the highest risk of flooding. Phoenix received only a small amount of rain yesterday.

Polo which became the 16th named storm yesterday and now the 11th hurricane of the season is expected to travel as a Cat 1 storm close to the mainland up till Friday, with potentially heavy rain and tropical force winds onshore. A turn to the west on Saturday should take it past the tip of the Baja some 400 miles off shore. Polo is currently a weak Cat 1 storm with 75 MPH winds, about 150 miles SSW of Manzanillo, moving at 8 MPH WNW. Estimated to be at its maximum strength today, at this point Polo does not appear to be a threat to Sonora or the Baja.

Here in Alamos we can expect at least some of Polo's moisture to come are way over the weekend, we shall see.

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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2014, 09:06:48 AM »

After becoming the 16th named storm and 11th hurricane of the season, Polo may also enter the history book as one of the shortest lived hurricanes, staying a hurricane only about 6 hours.  Polo is quickly weakening and is predicted to diminish to a post tropical low in the next two days. It has made the predicted turn toward the west and is no longer a threat to the Baja, although may have sent them some rain last night. But before sailing away last night Polo sent that same singular rain band our way and has delivered almost a half inch of rain since about 5:00 AM this morning.

In Alamos for the next week the 10 day forecast shows a possibility of rain thru next Sunday, the 28th.  At this time there is one system down south which may develop over the next few days. However any new storms are likely to follow the pattern of Polo as weak hurricanes or tropical storms.  The train of recent hurricanes; Marie, Norbert, Odile and Polo, all followed the same general track, which is why it's called a train. This phenomena reduces the temperature of the water with each storm, and removes available energy for each subsequent storm on the same track.

Weather Guy has eyes on the disturbance down south and will post if there is any further development.

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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2014, 08:56:41 PM »

The disturbed weather system that has been churning around down south has, in the last hour, achieved Tropical Storm status and is named Rachel. This storm is on a track a good distance offshore and does not pose a threat to the mainland or the Baja. There is no prediction for the storm to strengthen beyond TS status, i.e. sustained wind more than 75 MPH. The storm is at 40 MPH, moving at 12 MPH in a NW direction.

Our last good rain in Alamos was Saturday with 1.35" measured in Centro.  Navajoa has had a couple of good rain events in the last few days including a 20 plus minute downpour this afternoon that flooded the streets.  Thunderstorms are predicted for the rest of the week here in Alamos, with a sunny warm week to follow next Monday.

The Weather Guy will keep eyes on Rachel but unless there are notable changes to strength or track, we will simply let it go on its way.

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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2014, 09:54:42 AM »

Here below from Dr. Jeff Masters, is Rachel's obit. Rachel achieved hurricane force on Saturday,  afternoon and increased to a 85 MPH storm Saturday night and Sunday morning. Rachel stayed  above hurricane force with sustained winds over 75MPH, 36 hours!
"Rachel's formation gave the Eastern Pacific a total of 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with three of those named storms and one hurricane occurring after September 25. Rachel will move little this week and dissipate without affecting any land areas." Currently the storm is down to TS strength.

As noted above we can expect two more storms still this year. So as Rachel dies, sure enough " Another area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) is located near the coast of southern Mexico Monday morning". This system is given a 70% chance to deliver heavy rains to Mexico over the next 5 days, which may include Alamos toward the weekend. A little early to establish an exact track for this storm but preliminary guidance predicts a similar track as Polo and Rachel, somewhat closer when passing the Baja though.

Generally in Alamos we can expect a clear and warm week with temperatures in the 90's up to 100 by Friday. Look for the September rain totals later this week.

The Weather Guy


* rachel-sep28.jpg (192.02 KB, 960x760 - viewed 119 times.)
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