So just what did we experience on Sunday afternoon. In little more than 40 minutes we got 1.55" of rain, winds near tropical storm levels and an exciting afternoon. Mazatlán got 4.5" and Los Mochis a whopping 8.55"! Surprisingly this was not a tropical storm. It was simply a high energy and moisture laden rain storm that formed below Guadalajara early Friday morning and traveled up the Sea of Cortez to Alamos. Careful review of the satellite data for the formation shows that it was closely related to what was then tropical disturbance 91C. As no cyclonic activity had begun it cannot be considered a rain band that spun off but certainly it originated in the same corner of the ocean.
So if you are still following the discussion you may be asking just why should I pay attention. The last two weeks has seen a great deal, perhaps unprecedented, amount of activity in the pacific basin. Starting with the twin hurricanes Iselle and Julio both headed toward Hawaii at the same time, and TS Iselle being the first to hit the big island in 20 years! Only to be followed by TS Karina, which is still active, going in the same direction. We now come back to Tropical Disturbance 91 C, upgraded yesterday to Tropical Depression 12 E, and soon to become TS Lowell. 12E is described as a sprawling, slow moving storm which will move northwestward about 800 miles off the west coast of the Baja, over the next 4 days. While that may seem to be a bit far away to care about, it is while not expected to reach hurricane strength, on approximately the same track as Norbert in 2008. There is no expectation for it to cross the Baja as Norbert did, but the advisory from the Weather Underground folks, is that the Southwest of the US should stay tuned to their local advisories for possible heavy rain from this storm. Unfortunately they do not discuss local possible conditions for Mexico, but after yesterday's, what I choose to call a freak rain event, I for one will be closely watching TS Lowell as it moves on up the Baja.
Forewarned is forearmed, stay safe, and don't wade in the arroyos. On a positive note this has been, I am told, the earliest start of the rainy season many can remember. Our total to date is over 16" for WS Alamos Centro, somewhat greater totals being recorded around the area.
Stay tuned for TS Lowell updates!
The Weather Guy