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Visit Alamos Mexico  |  Community  |  Alamos Weather (Moderator: Weather Guy)  |  Topic: Hola Ivette! and summer rain...
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Weather Guy
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« on: August 03, 2016, 07:30:40 AM »


So what happened to Agatha? In TWG’s last blog on June 6th, you may recall, predicted the possible development of our 1st named storm for 2016 by mid-June!  It was not until July 2nd, the Eastern Pacific developed Tropical Storm Agatha, followed by Category 4 Hurricane Blas, Category 2 Hurricane Celia, Category 3 Hurricane Darby, Tropical Storm Estelle, Category 1 Hurricane Frank and Category 4 Hurricane Georgette.
 
The following is taken from several postings of Dr. Masters recent blogs https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3372

“The seven named storms in the month of July tied a record set in 1985 for the most July storms on record in the basin.” We had a chance to break the record with an eighth named storm, if it formed by Sunday. This storm, that has been named Howard, did not reach tropical storm strength until around 3:00 AM MST, Monday. “Howard is expected to move west-northwest toward Hawaii and not impact Mexico.”

“Southeast of Howard, the next in the conga line of East Pacific storms soon develop from Invest 92E, currently TD Ten-E, will be Tropical Storm Ivette—which would make it the ninth named storm for the East Pacific in just five weeks!” Invest 92E, was classified on Monday, is predicted to reach TS strength by Wednesday morning and become a Cat 1 Hurricane by Friday. It is too soon to predict if this storm will approach the Hawaiian Islands.

“This puts us far ahead of climatology: the Eastern Pacific usually does not see its seventh named storm until August 7, its fifth hurricane until August 26, and its third major hurricane until September 20.” It is worth noting that, while 2016 will likely pale in comparison to last year’s 31 named storms and 16 hurricanes, there are still records to be broken this season.

So now, what about our rain in Alamos:
From the start of our rainy season in June we only had one good storm which came on the 29th thru July 1st, with more than 3.5” over the 3 days. With only light rain over the next 10 days the next storm came on July 25th with .80” and several days following with ~ 50” or so. To date, since June 1st, TWG has recorded 7.65” with other sites around Alamos recording as much as 9.5”.
The current ten day forecast shows a couple of dry days then a chance for some more good rain starting next week.

So long for now, check back often, as we are in the season and exciting things can happen any day!
The Weather Guy
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ODwyerPW
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2016, 12:48:42 PM »

Thanks Weather Guy!
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learning never stops
Weather Guy
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2016, 11:13:19 AM »

...Remember the part about exciting things can happen any day? Well now we have one of those days. The post cyclone, tropical low, remnant of Hurricane Earl that came ashore as a Cat 1 storm in  Belize Thursday night has traversed across southern Mexico in the last 24 hours (this is the any day part) emerging as TD 11-E and been reincarnated as Tropical Storm Javier. From it's onset Earl has been anything but a typical storm. Only reaching Cat 1 strength hours before land fall, it is a very large system bringing a lot of rain along its path. Although for systems to traverse Mexico, in either direction, is not unusual for a storm to re-form and come ashore is a rare occurrence! The 9:00 AM initial track gives a high probability of TS Javier hitting Cabo San Lucas on Tuesday.  See the attached link below for the complete description of this unusual, at the least, event.

So now what will this do in terms of weather for Alamos? Already the 10 day forecast shows a rainy week ahead for possibly two or more inches of rain with up to 5" in the mountains to the south and east. These predictions are based on the initial 9:00 AM and are certainly subject to change over the next two days. This is still a large, moisture laden, and potentially dangerous system, which is already predicted to impact the SW US with significant rainfall. We should all remain cautious over the next 3 days as TS Javier approaches the Baja, look for a follow up posting Tuesday AM.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-depression-eleven-e-javier-tropical-storm-hurricane-mexico

By for now, stay safe and check back soon,

The Weather Guy
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2016, 10:43:52 AM »

Tropical Storm Javier has strengthened over the last 24 hours and is predicted as a near miss for Cabo San Lucas later today, winds up to 60 MPH are possible and 5" of rain for the region.  Here in Alamos we woke up to cloudy skies and blustery wind, with already a trace of rain. Through the week we may see up to 3" here, the concern, at this point, is how much rain falls to the East of us, up in the mountains. Southern Sonora was included in this mornings WU news, quoted below.

"Another threat is the potential for heavy rain and flooding. Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches (locally up to 10 inches) are expected over coastal parts of the Mexico's Sinaloa and southern Sonora states into Baja California."

While not a strong storm, in terms of wind speed, it is a large, and still dangerous system.  40 death reported as TS Earl passed over Mexico last weekend! Currently the TS is 75 miles from Cabo, 350 miles from Alamos and this morning's weather is courtesy of Javier.

Stay safe, stay dry, and keep the kids out of the Arroyos !!!

The Weather Guy
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