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Community => Alamos Weather => Topic started by: Weather Guy on November 23, 2015, 10:24:58 PM

Title: Hola Sandra ?
Post by: Weather Guy on November 23, 2015, 10:24:58 PM
Soon to be named TS Sandra is spinning up below Acapulco and while yet to be named at press time is predicted to reach Hurricane status this week.  Good catch by Mary Jo who found The Weather Chanel's blog on TD 22-E which predicts strengthening up to Cat 2 as possible, currently that possibility has backed down to only Cat 1.  However even as just a Tropical Storm, Sandra makes an impressive entry to the Record book and as a yet to be named Eastern Pacific storm, once again is the lead story for Dr. Masters blog noted here on in quotes.

"If Sandra does form this week, it will join last week's Tropical Storm Rick as one of the latest-forming tropical storms in the history of the Eastern Pacific. Since accurate records began in 1949 (with higher-quality satellite records beginning in 1971), the Eastern Pacific has seen only five tropical storms form after November 18:" ... "If 91E becomes a tropical storm and hits land, it will be the latest landfalling Eastern Pacific storm on record. (note: Dr. Masters blog was written prior to TD 22 having even formed yet !) This year has also beaten the onset year of the 1997-98 El Niño in terms of the span from the earliest to latest tropical cyclone in the Northeast Pacific. The season’s first storm of 2015, Andres, formed on May 28, four days earlier than Andrea in 1997. The last NE Pacific storm of 1997, also named Rick, formed on November 7, "

So much for the record book, what does this mean for us, and in this case for Los Cabos on the Baja, that will potentially get a butt kicking of a TS late this week, with the remaining TD headed toward the Mainland. Way to early to guess a point for landfall, but already we have an inch of rain predicted to fall here in Alamos for next weekend, with only moderate winds.  While normally TWG will wait for a system to be named before blogging, it is because this is such a fast moving storm and will play out very quickly, that folks need to be aware and should pay attention to it's progress.

Rain to date in Alamos is 24" in Centro with greater amounts around town. We have had, what can be viewed as, two winter rains so far. A summary of this years rain by month for next weeks post Sandra blog.

The Weather Guy
Title: Hold On Sandra !!
Post by: Weather Guy on November 24, 2015, 10:19:30 PM
Sandra has not failed to impress us today. Going from a yet to be named tropical storm to Cat 1 hurricane in 24 hours. The news in this case is that she has not stopped strengthening as yet and now is expected to reach Cat 3 force by Thursday morning after reaching Cat 2 status Wednesday evening. By Friday the remnant TS will pass by the tip of the Baja and come onshore somewhere near Mazatlán Saturday morning. Sandra remains a fast moving storm and as it approaches the Baja is destined to smack in to upper level wind shear that will pull it apart sending its moisture on to N.E. Texas,which is still drying out from several wet weeks.

Here in Alamos we can expect up to 2 plus inches of rain starting late Thursday through Saturday which may come in the form of several intense downpours.  Winds are still predicted to be moderate.

Enjoy one more Summer rain,
The Weather Guy
Title: Not yet Adios Sandra ....
Post by: Weather Guy on November 26, 2015, 10:19:39 PM
Dr. Masters says it all today,"Remarkable Hurricane Sandra exploded into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds overnight, making it the latest major hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere (November 26.)" in his unprecedented 3rd consecutive article with Sandra as the lead to "An Unprecedented Thanksgiving Visitor: a Category 4 Hurricane". At press time Sandra, while now weakening, should remain at hurricane strength thru tomorrow. Show time for mainland, perhaps around as far north as Topolobampo is predicated to be Saturday evening. In Alamos we are within the area that will experience the effect of, what at landfall is expected to be only the remnant Tropical Depression from Sandra, and we can expect a gully washer or two starting tomorrow. Still only moderate winds are predicted. So, you may ask, could it be more than just a good rain? Not very likely, but yes the prediction can miss the mark every now and then, that's why it is called weather.

By Sunday, while  we should be just left with the clean-up, the rest of the story will be playing out as the moisture laden clouds pulled of the top of Hurricane Sandra, will be railroaded in to Texas and the Mississippi Valley. Today, Winter Storm Cara is brutalizing the Mid West with significant rain plus freezing rain and sleet along the northern edge of that system. When Sandra's moisture  gets there, it may be the "unprecedented visitor".  If you remember the movie "The Perfect Storm" what we will see play out this coming week, is two of the three storms from that tale, happening over a landmass instead of the ocean.  Add in a Nor'easter and you would have just that, a complete Perfect Storm, somewhere between Cleveland and Newark.

If the nuts and bolts of the weather interests you, do read Dr. Masters last three blogs for the complete story of what historically we are experiencing with this years El Nino. Here is a link to todays blog  But for a great example of what   weather is about, by using the Wondermap feature found in the Wunderground site for Alamos Centro, you can watch a real time animated view as these systems collide starting tomorrow.

TWG and Mrs. WG wish all the folks out there who take time to read this blog a Happy Thanksgiving and remind everyone to stay safe and keep the kids out of the arroyos.

The Weather Guy